Mintscore

74 matches modelled · 39 value spots

Football probabilities,
not predictions in disguise.

Every match below comes with the model's outcome distribution, expected goals, and — where market odds exist — a flag if there's measurable value. We don't tell you what to bet. We show you the maths and let you decide.

How the model works →Free sign-up bonuses

Daily aggregator accas

Three accas built from the model's most-confident picks today

10 odds

7 legs

9.67odds

Safest of the day's big-confidence picks

Hits ~10.3%1 in 10

100 odds

12 legs

90.44odds

Stretch acca — bigger payout, real variance

Hits ~1.1%1 in 90

1000 odds

17 legs

939odds

Lottery ticket — fun to dream, brutal maths

Hits ~0.11%1 in 939

Joint probability assumes leg outcomes are independent — they're not, perfectly. Real variance is higher than the model shows. Accumulators amplify both upside and model error; keep stakes small and treat the 1000-odds slot as entertainment, not investment.

Saturday, May 9

Value
EPL·Sat, May 9 · 11:30 AM

Liverpool

vs

Chelsea

65%
21%
14%
Liverpool winDrawChelsea win
xG 2.36–1.05edge +68.8%BTTS 60%
La Liga·Sat, May 9 · 12:00 PM

Elche

vs

Alavés

43%
31%
26%
Elche winDrawAlavés win
xG 1.45–1.10BTTS 53%
 Value
Serie A·Sat, May 9 · 01:00 PM

Cagliari

vs

Udinese

42%
30%
28%
Cagliari winDrawUdinese win
xG 1.45–1.15edge +8.6%BTTS 55%
 Value
Bundesliga·Sat, May 9 · 01:30 PM

RB Leipzig

vs

St. Pauli

62%
22%
16%
RB Leipzig winDrawSt. Pauli win
xG 2.31–1.12edge +48.4%BTTS 62%
 Value
Bundesliga·Sat, May 9 · 01:30 PM

Augsburg

vs

M'gladbach

42%
28%
30%
Augsburg winDrawM'gladbach win
xG 1.65–1.40edge +8.5%BTTS 63%
 Value
Champ.·Sat, May 9 · 01:30 PM

Middlesbrough

vs

Southampton

42%
30%
28%
Middlesbrough winDrawSouthampton win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +62.1%BTTS 56%
 Value
Bundesliga·Sat, May 9 · 01:30 PM

Stuttgart

vs

Leverkusen

35%
24%
41%
Stuttgart winDrawLeverkusen win
xG 1.82–1.96edge +19.7%BTTS 74%
Bundesliga·Sat, May 9 · 01:30 PM

Hoffenheim

vs

Bremen

42%
28%
30%
Hoffenheim winDrawBremen win
xG 1.65–1.40BTTS 63%
 Value
EPL·Sat, May 9 · 02:00 PM

Brighton Hove

vs

Wolverhampton

60%
23%
17%
Brighton Hove winDrawWolverhampton win
xG 2.14–1.06edge +65.6%BTTS 59%
 Value
EPL·Sat, May 9 · 02:00 PM

Fulham

vs

Bournemouth

54%
26%
20%
Fulham winDrawBournemouth win
xG 1.95–1.18edge +44.5%BTTS 61%
 Value
EPL·Sat, May 9 · 02:00 PM

Sunderland

vs

Man United

45%
28%
27%
Sunderland winDrawMan United win
xG 1.71–1.31edge +70.0%BTTS 62%
La Liga·Sat, May 9 · 02:15 PM

Sevilla FC

vs

Espanyol

43%
31%
26%
Sevilla FC winDrawEspanyol win
xG 1.45–1.10BTTS 53%
Serie A·Sat, May 9 · 04:00 PM

Lazio

vs

Inter

28%
30%
42%
Lazio winDrawInter win
xG 1.22–1.53BTTS 57%
 Value
Bundesliga·Sat, May 9 · 04:30 PM

Wolfsburg

vs

Bayern

18%
22%
60%
Wolfsburg winDrawBayern win
xG 1.24–2.31edge +11.0%BTTS 65%
La Liga·Sat, May 9 · 04:30 PM

Atleti

vs

Celta

66%
23%
11%
Atleti winDrawCelta win
xG 2.03–0.72BTTS 46%
 Value
EPL·Sat, May 9 · 04:30 PM

Man City

vs

Brentford

81%
14%
Man City winDrawBrentford win
xG 2.94–0.74edge +10.3%BTTS 50%
Serie A·Sat, May 9 · 06:45 PM

Lecce

vs

Juventus

31%
32%
37%
Lecce winDrawJuventus win
xG 1.16–1.26BTTS 52%
 Value
Brasileirão·Sat, May 9 · 07:00 PM

Coritiba

vs

Internacional

42%
30%
28%
Coritiba winDrawInternacional win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +13.3%BTTS 56%
 Value
La Liga·Sat, May 9 · 07:00 PM

Real Sociedad

vs

Real Betis

54%
27%
19%
Real Sociedad winDrawReal Betis win
xG 1.75–0.94edge +42.7%BTTS 52%
Brasileirão·Sat, May 9 · 09:00 PM

Fluminense

vs

Vitória

42%
30%
28%
Fluminense winDrawVitória win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%

Sunday, May 10

Brasileirão·Sun, May 10 · 12:00 AM

Bahia

vs

Cruzeiro

42%
30%
28%
Bahia winDrawCruzeiro win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
 Value
Serie A·Sun, May 10 · 10:30 AM

Verona

vs

Como 1907

42%
30%
28%
Verona winDrawComo 1907 win
xG 1.45–1.15edge +234.0%BTTS 55%
La Liga·Sun, May 10 · 12:00 PM

Mallorca

vs

Villarreal

45%
29%
26%
Mallorca winDrawVillarreal win
xG 1.59–1.16BTTS 57%
Serie A·Sun, May 10 · 01:00 PM

Fiorentina

vs

Genoa

42%
30%
28%
Fiorentina winDrawGenoa win
xG 1.45–1.15BTTS 55%
 Value
EPL·Sun, May 10 · 01:00 PM

Burnley

vs

Aston Villa

41%
28%
31%
Burnley winDrawAston Villa win
xG 1.63–1.38edge +117.9%BTTS 62%
EPL·Sun, May 10 · 01:00 PM

Nottingham

vs

Newcastle

36%
28%
36%
Nottingham winDrawNewcastle win
xG 1.55–1.58edge -2.1%BTTS 64%
 Value
EPL·Sun, May 10 · 01:00 PM

Crystal Palace

vs

Everton

56%
26%
18%
Crystal Palace winDrawEverton win
xG 1.87–1.00edge +56.4%BTTS 55%
Serie A·Sun, May 10 · 01:00 PM

Cremonese

vs

AC Pisa

42%
30%
28%
Cremonese winDrawAC Pisa win
xG 1.45–1.15BTTS 55%
 Value
Bundesliga·Sun, May 10 · 01:30 PM

HSV

vs

Freiburg

42%
28%
30%
HSV winDrawFreiburg win
xG 1.65–1.40edge +11.3%BTTS 63%
 Value
La Liga·Sun, May 10 · 02:15 PM

Athletic

vs

Valencia

71%
20%
9%
Athletic winDrawValencia win
xG 2.26–0.70edge +21.1%BTTS 47%
 Value
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

Ajax

vs

Utrecht

42%
30%
28%
Ajax winDrawUtrecht win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +26.8%BTTS 56%
 Value
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

NAC

vs

Heerenveen

42%
30%
28%
NAC winDrawHeerenveen win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +11.9%BTTS 56%
 Value
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

Groningen

vs

NEC

42%
30%
28%
Groningen winDrawNEC win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +17.5%BTTS 56%
 Value
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

Twente

vs

Sparta

42%
30%
28%
Twente winDrawSparta win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +111.5%BTTS 56%
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

Sittard

vs

Zwolle

42%
30%
28%
Sittard winDrawZwolle win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

Excelsior

vs

Volendam

42%
30%
28%
Excelsior winDrawVolendam win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
 Value
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

Go Ahead

vs

PSV

42%
30%
28%
Go Ahead winDrawPSV win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +88.9%BTTS 56%
 Value
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

Telstar

vs

Heracles

42%
30%
28%
Telstar winDrawHeracles win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +114.3%BTTS 56%
 Value
Eredivisie·Sun, May 10 · 02:45 PM

Feyenoord

vs

AZ

42%
30%
28%
Feyenoord winDrawAZ win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +17.9%BTTS 56%
 Value
EPL·Sun, May 10 · 03:30 PM

West Ham

vs

Arsenal

25%
27%
48%
West Ham winDrawArsenal win
xG 1.28–1.84edge +31.3%BTTS 63%
 Value
Bundesliga·Sun, May 10 · 03:30 PM

1. FC Köln

vs

Heidenheim

42%
28%
30%
1. FC Köln winDrawHeidenheim win
xG 1.65–1.40edge +11.2%BTTS 63%
Serie A·Sun, May 10 · 04:00 PM

Parma

vs

Roma

41%
29%
30%
Parma winDrawRoma win
xG 1.52–1.26BTTS 58%
La Liga·Sun, May 10 · 04:30 PM

Real Oviedo

vs

Getafe

53%
29%
18%
Real Oviedo winDrawGetafe win
xG 1.59–0.83BTTS 47%
 Value
Primeira·Sun, May 10 · 05:00 PM

AVS

vs

Porto

42%
30%
28%
AVS winDrawPorto win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +424.6%BTTS 56%
 Value
Bundesliga·Sun, May 10 · 05:30 PM

Mainz

vs

Union Berlin

42%
28%
30%
Mainz winDrawUnion Berlin win
xG 1.65–1.40edge +37.9%BTTS 63%
 Value
Serie A·Sun, May 10 · 06:45 PM

Milan

vs

Atalanta

54%
25%
21%
Milan winDrawAtalanta win
xG 2.03–1.24edge +10.5%BTTS 64%
Brasileirão·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Mineiro

vs

Botafogo

42%
30%
28%
Mineiro winDrawBotafogo win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
 Value
La Liga·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Barça

vs

Real Madrid

49%
28%
23%
Barça winDrawReal Madrid win
xG 1.73–1.15edge +32.7%BTTS 58%
 Value
Ligue 1·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

FC Metz

vs

Lorient

42%
30%
28%
FC Metz winDrawLorient win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +32.2%BTTS 56%
Ligue 1·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

PSG

vs

Brest

80%
15%
PSG winDrawBrest win
xG 2.78–0.66BTTS 46%
Ligue 1·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Auxerre

vs

Nice

42%
30%
28%
Auxerre winDrawNice win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Ligue 1·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Stade Rennais

vs

Paris FC

42%
30%
28%
Stade Rennais winDrawParis FC win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Brasileirão·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Clube do Remo

vs

Palmeiras

42%
30%
28%
Clube do Remo winDrawPalmeiras win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Ligue 1·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Monaco

vs

Lille

56%
25%
19%
Monaco winDrawLille win
xG 1.99–1.12BTTS 60%
Ligue 1·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Toulouse

vs

Olympique Lyon

44%
28%
28%
Toulouse winDrawOlympique Lyon win
xG 1.65–1.26BTTS 60%
Ligue 1·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Le Havre

vs

Marseille

41%
29%
30%
Le Havre winDrawMarseille win
xG 1.58–1.32BTTS 60%
Ligue 1·Sun, May 10 · 07:00 PM

Angers SCO

vs

Strasbourg

42%
30%
28%
Angers SCO winDrawStrasbourg win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Primeira·Sun, May 10 · 07:30 PM

Alverca

vs

Estoril Praia

42%
30%
28%
Alverca winDrawEstoril Praia win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Brasileirão·Sun, May 10 · 09:30 PM

Corinthians

vs

São Paulo

42%
30%
28%
Corinthians winDrawSão Paulo win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Brasileirão·Sun, May 10 · 09:30 PM

Santos

vs

Bragantino

42%
30%
28%
Santos winDrawBragantino win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
 Value
Brasileirão·Sun, May 10 · 09:30 PM

Mirassol

vs

Chapecoense

42%
30%
28%
Mirassol winDrawChapecoense win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +76.2%BTTS 56%
Brasileirão·Sun, May 10 · 10:30 PM

Grêmio

vs

Flamengo

42%
30%
28%
Grêmio winDrawFlamengo win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Brasileirão·Sun, May 10 · 11:30 PM

Vasco da Gama

vs

Paranaense

42%
30%
28%
Vasco da Gama winDrawParanaense win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%

Monday, May 11

Serie A·Mon, May 11 · 06:45 PM

Napoli

vs

Bologna

60%
24%
16%
Napoli winDrawBologna win
xG 2.03–0.98BTTS 56%
La Liga·Mon, May 11 · 07:00 PM

Rayo Vallecano

vs

Girona

43%
31%
26%
Rayo Vallecano winDrawGirona win
xG 1.45–1.10edge +4.3%BTTS 53%
 Value
EPL·Mon, May 11 · 07:00 PM

Tottenham

vs

Leeds United

58%
23%
19%
Tottenham winDrawLeeds United win
xG 2.17–1.19edge +9.3%BTTS 63%
 Value
Primeira·Mon, May 11 · 07:15 PM

Gil Vicente

vs

Arouca

42%
30%
28%
Gil Vicente winDrawArouca win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +29.7%BTTS 56%
Primeira·Mon, May 11 · 07:15 PM

Santa Clara

vs

CD Nacional

42%
30%
28%
Santa Clara winDrawCD Nacional win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
Primeira·Mon, May 11 · 07:15 PM

Tondela

vs

Moreirense

42%
30%
28%
Tondela winDrawMoreirense win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
 Value
Primeira·Mon, May 11 · 07:15 PM

Amadora

vs

Famalicão

42%
30%
28%
Amadora winDrawFamalicão win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +48.8%BTTS 56%
 Value
Primeira·Mon, May 11 · 07:15 PM

Vitória SC

vs

Casa Pia

42%
30%
28%
Vitória SC winDrawCasa Pia win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +28.0%BTTS 56%
Primeira·Mon, May 11 · 07:15 PM

SL Benfica

vs

Braga

42%
30%
28%
SL Benfica winDrawBraga win
xG 1.50–1.20BTTS 56%
 Value
Primeira·Mon, May 11 · 07:15 PM

Rio Ave

vs

Sporting CP

42%
30%
28%
Rio Ave winDrawSporting CP win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +330.2%BTTS 56%
 Value
Champ.·Mon, May 11 · 09:00 PM

Millwall

vs

Hull City

42%
30%
28%
Millwall winDrawHull City win
xG 1.50–1.20edge +29.0%BTTS 56%