Primeira Liga · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 07:30 PM
Académico de Viseu FCvsVitória SC
Outcome probabilities
Acad. Viseu
42%
fair odds 2.37
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.34
Vitória SC
28%
fair odds 3.58
Market vs model
Market median
3.10 / 3.15 / 2.10
Model edge
+30.8%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.19
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Form & scorers
Acad. Viseu · last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
Vitória SC · last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
Primeira Liga top scorers
- 1Vangelis PavlidisSL Benfica5
- 2Leandro AntonettiAmadora4
- 3Gonçalo PaciênciaSanta Clara4
- 4Luis SuárezSporting CP4
- 5Georgios KoutsiasFamalicão3
- 6BarberoArouca3
- 7Gabriel VeigaPorto3
- 8Pau Victor DelgadoBraga3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 09.0%
- #41 - 08.0%
- #52 - 07.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →