Eredivisie · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 06:00 PM
Fortuna SittardvsAFC Ajax
Outcome probabilities
Sittard
29%
fair odds 3.45
Draw
27%
fair odds 3.72
Ajax
44%
fair odds 2.27
Market vs model
Market median
5.80 / 4.75 / 1.42
Model edge
+68.3%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.41 - 1.76
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals
38%
Head to head · last 6
0
Wins
2
Draws
4
Losses
4
Goals for
16
Goals against
Form & scorers
Sittard · last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Eredivisie top scorers
- 1Søren TengstedtGo Ahead4
- 2Ro-Zangelo DaalAZ4
- 3Milan ZonneveldSparta4
- 4Rafik el ArguiouiCambuur4
- 5Gjivai ZechiëlFeyenoord4
- 6David GardenExcelsior3
- 7Luciano ValenteFeyenoord3
- 8Brynjolfur Darri WillumssonGroningen3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 112.3%
- #21 - 29.2%
- #32 - 17.3%
- #40 - 26.5%
- #52 - 26.5%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →