Bundesliga · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 01:30 PM
TSG 1899 HoffenheimvsVfB Stuttgart
Outcome probabilities
43%
22%
35%
Hoffenheim winDrawStuttgart win
Hoffenheim
43%
fair odds 2.34
Draw
22%
fair odds 4.52
Stuttgart
35%
fair odds 2.85
Market vs model
Market median
2.30 / 3.85 / 2.65
Model edge
-1.7%
Recommended stake
no stake
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.25 - 2.04
Both teams to score
79%
Over 2.5 goals
80%
Under 2.5 goals
20%
Head to head · last 6
1
Wins
4
Draws
1
Losses
8
Goals for
10
Goals against
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Josha VagnomanStuttgart2goals
Bundesliga top scorers
- 1Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3
- 2Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3
- 3Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2
- 4David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
- 5Patrik SchickLeverkusen2
- 6Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
- 7Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 8Hugo BolinM'gladbach2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 17.4%
- #22 - 27.2%
- #32 - 17.1%
- #41 - 26.4%
- #53 - 25.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →