Eredivisie · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 07:00 PM
SC Cambuur-LeeuwardenvsNEC
Outcome probabilities
Cambuur
46%
fair odds 2.19
Draw
27%
fair odds 3.75
NEC
28%
fair odds 3.62
Market vs model
Market median
5.50 / 4.70 / 1.44
Model edge
+151.3%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.80 - 1.38
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals
38%
Head to head · last 4
1
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
4
Goals for
5
Goals against
Form & scorers
Cambuur · last 5
0W · 1D · 4L
Top scorers playing today
- Rafik el ArguiouiCambuur4goals
- Tjaronn CheryNEC3goals
Eredivisie top scorers
- 1Søren TengstedtGo Ahead4
- 2Ro-Zangelo DaalAZ4
- 3Milan ZonneveldSparta4
- 4Gjivai ZechiëlFeyenoord4
- 5David GardenExcelsior3
- 6Luciano ValenteFeyenoord3
- 7Brynjolfur Darri WillumssonGroningen3
- 8Thom van BergenGroningen3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 112.2%
- #22 - 19.3%
- #31 - 27.1%
- #42 - 06.8%
- #52 - 26.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →