Primera Division · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Sevilla FCvsValencia CF
Outcome probabilities
Sevilla FC
39%
fair odds 2.56
Draw
31%
fair odds 3.21
Valencia
30%
fair odds 3.37
Market vs model
Market median
2.25 / 3.10 / 3.30
Model edge
-2.0%
Recommended stake
no stake
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.37 - 1.17
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Head to head · last 6
0
Wins
3
Draws
3
Losses
3
Goals for
7
Goals against
- LMar 21, 2026Sevilla FC 0 - 2 ValenciaPrimera Division
- DDec 7, 2025Valencia 1 - 1 Sevilla FCPrimera Division
- LApr 11, 2025Valencia 1 - 0 Sevilla FCPrimera Division
- DJan 11, 2025Sevilla FC 1 - 1 ValenciaPrimera Division
- DFeb 17, 2024Valencia 0 - 0 Sevilla FCPrimera Division
- LAug 11, 2023Sevilla FC 1 - 2 ValenciaPrimera Division
Form & scorers
Sevilla FC · last 4
2W · 1D · 1L
Valencia · last 4
0W · 1D · 3L
Primera Division top scorers
- 1RaphinhaBarça6
- 2Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano5
- 3Pierre-Emerick AubameyangDeportivo4
- 4Fermín LópezBarça4
- 5Kylian MbappéReal Madrid4
- 6Ante BudimirOsasuna4
- 7Lucas BoyéAlavés4
- 8Lamine YamalBarça4
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.9%
- #20 - 010.2%
- #32 - 18.6%
- #41 - 08.6%
- #52 - 07.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →