Ligue 1 · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 06:45 PM
Le Havre ACvsAngers SCO
Outcome probabilities
Le Havre
51%
fair odds 1.97
Draw
35%
fair odds 2.89
Angers SCO
15%
fair odds 6.81
Market vs model
Market median
2.15 / 3.20 / 3.35
Model edge
+10.8%
Recommended stake
1.23% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.22 - 0.55
Both teams to score
32%
Over 2.5 goals
26%
Under 2.5 goals
74%
Head to head · last 4
1
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
4
Goals for
4
Goals against
Form & scorers
Le Havre · last 3
0W · 1D · 2L
Angers SCO · last 3
1W · 0D · 2L
Ligue 1 top scorers
- 1Amine GouiriMarseille4
- 2Kamory DoumbiaBrest4
- 3Lassine SinayokoParis FC4
- 4Florian ThauvinRC Lens3
- 5Louis MafoutaLe Mans3
- 6Esteban LepaulStade Rennais3
- 7Ferrán TorresPSG2
- 8MarquinhosPSG2
Most likely scorelines
- #10 - 019.1%
- #21 - 018.7%
- #31 - 113.5%
- #42 - 012.7%
- #50 - 17.3%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →