Championship · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Charlton Athletic FCvsQueens Park Rangers FC
Outcome probabilities
Charlton
39%
fair odds 2.56
Draw
36%
fair odds 2.82
QPR
25%
fair odds 3.94
Market vs model
Market median
3.00 / 3.35 / 2.28
Model edge
+18.9%
Recommended stake
2.02% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.12 - 0.86
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals
68%
Head to head · last 3
1
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
2
Goals for
3
Goals against
Form & scorers
Charlton · last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Tyreece CampbellCharlton3goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 6Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 7Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
- 8Callum LangPreston NE3
Most likely scorelines
- #10 - 016.3%
- #21 - 115.7%
- #31 - 013.1%
- #40 - 19.5%
- #52 - 08.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →