UEFA Champions League · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 04:45 PM
FC BarcelonavsFeyenoord Rotterdam
Outcome probabilities
Barça
68%
fair odds 1.48
Draw
21%
fair odds 4.81
Feyenoord
11%
fair odds 8.74
Market vs model
Market median
1.11 / 10.25 / 18.84
Model edge
+115.7%
Recommended stake
1.62% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.33 - 0.90
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals
37%
Form & scorers
Barça · last 4
4W · 0D · 0L
Feyenoord · last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
UEFA Champions League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City2
- 2Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 3BartraReal Betis2
- 4John McGinnAston Villa1
- 5Hugo VetlesenClub Brugge1
- 6Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa1
- 7Nicolas JacksonAston Villa1
- 8Nicolo TresoldiClub Brugge1
Most likely scorelines
- #12 - 010.7%
- #21 - 19.8%
- #32 - 19.7%
- #43 - 08.3%
- #51 - 07.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →