Premier League · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Liverpool FCvsFulham FC
Outcome probabilities
Liverpool
63%
fair odds 1.58
Draw
24%
fair odds 4.10
Fulham
12%
fair odds 8.22
Market vs model
Market median
1.44 / 4.82 / 6.00
Model edge
+17.8%
Recommended stake
1.16% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.95 - 0.77
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Head to head · last 5
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
11
Goals for
8
Goals against
Form & scorers
Liverpool · last 3
1W · 2D · 0L
Fulham · last 3
0W · 0D · 3L
Top scorers playing today
- Alexander IsakLiverpool3goals
- Joshua KingFulham2goals
Premier League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City3
- 2Bruno FernandesMan United3
- 3Kai HavertzArsenal2
- 4Bukayo SakaArsenal2
- 5Martin ØdegaardArsenal2
- 6Vitaly JaneltBrentford2
- 7Marcus TavernierBournemouth2
- 8Jack HinshelwoodBrighton Hove2
Most likely scorelines
- #12 - 012.5%
- #21 - 111.7%
- #31 - 011.1%
- #42 - 19.6%
- #50 - 08.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →