Mintscore

Bundesliga · Saturday, October 18, 2025 · 01:30 PM

RB LeipzigvsHamburger SV

Score timeline

RB Leipzig

2 - 1

HSV

Full time · HT 10

First half

1 - 0

RB Leipzig v HSV

Second half

1 - 1

RB Leipzig v HSV

Goals by half

RB Leipzig
HSV

Each tick is a goal.

Match highlights

Full time 2–1

Watch on YouTube

Outcome probabilities

75%
18%
RB Leipzig winDrawHSV win

RB Leipzig

75%

fair odds 1.33

Draw

18%

fair odds 5.63

HSV

7%

fair odds 13.73

Market vs model

Market median

1.38 / 5.00 / 7.00

Model edge

+3.4%

Recommended stake

2.26% of bankroll

Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

2.49 - 0.71

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

Under 2.5 goals

38%

Head to head · last 2

2

Wins

0

Draws

0

Losses

4

Goals for

2

Goals against

Form & scorers

HSV · last 2

LL

0W · 0D · 2L

Top scorers playing today

  • Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2goals

Bundesliga top scorers

  • 1Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3
  • 2Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3
  • 3Josha VagnomanStuttgart2
  • 4David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
  • 5Patrik SchickLeverkusen2
  • 6Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
  • 7Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
  • 8Hugo BolinM'gladbach2

Most likely scorelines

  • #12 - 0
    12.6%
  • #23 - 0
    10.5%
  • #32 - 1
    9.0%
  • #41 - 0
    8.8%
  • #51 - 1
    8.5%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →