Premier League · Saturday, January 3, 2026 · 12:30 PM
Aston Villa FCvsNottingham Forest FC
Score timeline
Aston Villa
3 - 1
Nottingham
Full time · HT 1–0
First half
1 - 0
Aston Villa v Nottingham
Second half
2 - 1
Aston Villa v Nottingham
Goals by half
Each tick is a goal.
Match highlights
Watch Aston Villa vs Nottingham highlightsFull time 3–1 · opens YouTube in a new tabHighlights are hosted on YouTube by the competition's rights holders; availability varies.
Outcome probabilities
Aston Villa
41%
fair odds 2.44
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.56
Nottingham
31%
fair odds 3.23
Market vs model
Market median
2.01 / 3.50 / 3.55
Model edge
+9.8%
Recommended stake
0.97% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.62 - 1.39
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals
42%
Head to head · last 4
2
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
7
Goals for
5
Goals against
Form & scorers
Aston Villa · last 4
1W · 1D · 2L
Nottingham · last 3
0W · 2D · 1L
Premier League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City3
- 2Alexander IsakLiverpool3
- 3Bruno FernandesMan United3
- 4Kai HavertzArsenal2
- 5Bukayo SakaArsenal2
- 6Martin ØdegaardArsenal2
- 7Vitaly JaneltBrentford2
- 8Marcus TavernierBournemouth2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 113.1%
- #22 - 19.0%
- #31 - 27.7%
- #40 - 06.9%
- #52 - 06.5%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →