UEFA Champions League · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 04:45 PM
Club Brugge KVvsAston Villa FC
Score timeline
Club Brugge
2 - 3
Aston Villa
Live · HT 1–3
First half
1 - 3
Club Brugge v Aston Villa
Second half (live)
1 - 0
Club Brugge v Aston Villa
Goals by half
Each tick is a goal.
Outcome probabilities
Club Brugge
44%
fair odds 2.25
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.53
Aston Villa
27%
fair odds 3.67
Market vs model
Market median
2.63 / 3.65 / 2.48
Model edge
+17.0%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.65 - 1.26
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
44%
Head to head · last 3
1
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
2
Goals for
6
Goals against
Form & scorers
Club Brugge
Recent form unavailable.
Aston Villa · last 4
1W · 1D · 2L
Top scorers playing today
- John McGinnAston Villa1goals
- Hugo VetlesenClub Brugge1goals
- Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa1goals
- Nicolas JacksonAston Villa1goals
- Nicolo TresoldiClub Brugge1goals
UEFA Champions League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City2
- 2Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 3BartraReal Betis2
- 4Răzvan MarinPAE AEK1
- 5Kylian MbappéReal Madrid1
- 6Federico ValverdeReal Madrid1
- 7Carlos Augusto LobatonInter1
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 113.4%
- #22 - 19.3%
- #30 - 07.5%
- #42 - 07.4%
- #51 - 27.1%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →