Championship · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 07:00 PM
West Ham United FCvsWrexham AFC
Outcome probabilities
West Ham
34%
fair odds 2.95
Draw
32%
fair odds 3.11
Wrexham
34%
fair odds 2.95
Market vs model
Market median
1.54 / 4.20 / 5.23
Model edge
+77.7%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.22 - 1.22
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
56%
Form & scorers
West Ham · last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Wrexham · last 5
1W · 3D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Jarrod BowenWest Ham3goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 6Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 7Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 8Callum LangPreston NE3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 115.3%
- #20 - 011.1%
- #31 - 08.3%
- #40 - 18.3%
- #51 - 27.9%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →