Championship · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 06:45 PM
Wrexham AFCvsBurnley FC
Outcome probabilities
Wrexham
41%
fair odds 2.46
Draw
26%
fair odds 3.84
Burnley
33%
fair odds 3.00
Market vs model
Market median
2.00 / 3.50 / 3.50
Model edge
+16.7%
Recommended stake
1.67% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.78 - 1.61
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
34%
Form & scorers
Wrexham · last 5
1W · 3D · 1L
Burnley · last 5
0W · 2D · 3L
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 6Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 7Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 8Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 111.4%
- #22 - 18.6%
- #31 - 27.8%
- #42 - 26.9%
- #52 - 05.3%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →