Serie A · Sunday, September 24, 2023 · 01:00 PM
Atalanta BCvsCagliari Calcio
Score timeline
Atalanta
2 - 0
Cagliari
Full time · HT 1–0
First half
1 - 0
Atalanta v Cagliari
Second half
1 - 0
Atalanta v Cagliari
Goals by half
Each tick is a goal.
Match highlights
Full time 2–0
Watch on YouTubeOutcome probabilities
Atalanta
61%
fair odds 1.64
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.63
Cagliari
12%
fair odds 8.67
Market vs model
Market median
1.53 / 4.00 / 6.00
Model edge
+10.1%
Recommended stake
0.84% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.66 - 0.62
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
60%
Head to head · last 6
3
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
8
Goals for
6
Goals against
Form & scorers
Atalanta · last 3
2W · 0D · 1L
Cagliari · last 3
2W · 0D · 1L
Serie A top scorers
- 1Donyell MalenRoma5
- 2Antonio RaimondoFrosinone4
- 3Davide FrattesiLazio3
- 4Hassane KamaraUdinese2
- 5Anastasios DouvikasComo 19072
- 6Hakan ÇalhanoğluInter2
- 7Gustavo VarelaMonza2
- 8Alphadjo CisseMilan2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 015.2%
- #22 - 014.2%
- #31 - 112.4%
- #40 - 012.1%
- #52 - 18.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →