UEFA Champions League · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 07:00 PM
FC PortovsManchester City FC
Outcome probabilities
Porto
23%
fair odds 4.43
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.61
Man City
50%
fair odds 2.01
Market vs model
Market median
4.40 / 3.95 / 1.73
Model edge
+9.3%
Recommended stake
0.79% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.13 - 1.74
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
45%
Head to head · last 2
0
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1
Goals for
3
Goals against
Form & scorers
Porto · last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
Man City · last 4
4W · 0D · 0L
Top scorers playing today
- Erling HaalandMan City2goals
UEFA Champions League top scorers
- 1Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 2BartraReal Betis2
- 3John McGinnAston Villa1
- 4Hugo VetlesenClub Brugge1
- 5Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa1
- 6Nicolas JacksonAston Villa1
- 7Nicolo TresoldiClub Brugge1
- 8Răzvan MarinPAE AEK1
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 113.2%
- #21 - 29.7%
- #30 - 28.6%
- #40 - 17.9%
- #50 - 07.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →