Primeira Liga · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 05:00 PM
FC PortovsFC Alverca
Outcome probabilities
Porto
75%
fair odds 1.34
Draw
21%
fair odds 4.82
Alverca
5%
fair odds 21.92
Market vs model
Market median
1.17 / 6.00 / 13.19
Model edge
+24.6%
Recommended stake
1.23% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.94 - 0.35
Both teams to score
27%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
60%
Head to head · last 2
2
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
4
Goals for
0
Goals against
Most likely scorelines
- #12 - 019.0%
- #21 - 018.3%
- #33 - 012.3%
- #40 - 011.3%
- #51 - 18.2%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →