Championship · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 06:45 PM
Southampton FCvsSwansea City AFC
Outcome probabilities
Southampton
58%
fair odds 1.71
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.55
Swansea
13%
fair odds 7.49
Market vs model
Market median
1.88 / 3.62 / 3.90
Model edge
+9.9%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.64 - 0.69
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals
59%
Head to head · last 4
3
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
10
Goals for
2
Goals against
Form & scorers
Southampton · last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
Swansea · last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Cyle LarinSouthampton5goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 3Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 4Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 5Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 6Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 7Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
- 8Callum LangPreston NE3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 014.0%
- #22 - 013.1%
- #31 - 113.0%
- #40 - 011.7%
- #52 - 19.0%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →