Championship · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 06:45 PM
Blackburn Rovers FCvsSheffield United FC
Outcome probabilities
Blackburn
24%
fair odds 4.19
Draw
35%
fair odds 2.88
Sheffield Utd
41%
fair odds 2.41
Market vs model
Market median
3.00 / 3.40 / 2.25
Model edge
+17.9%
Recommended stake
1.87% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
0.85 - 1.19
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals
67%
Head to head · last 4
1
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
5
Goals for
7
Goals against
Form & scorers
Blackburn · last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
Sheffield Utd · last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Andri GuðjohnsenBlackburn2goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 6Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 7Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 8Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 115.5%
- #20 - 015.5%
- #30 - 113.2%
- #40 - 29.2%
- #51 - 08.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →