Eredivisie · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:30 PM
FC Twente '65vsADO Den Haag
Outcome probabilities
Twente
53%
fair odds 1.88
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.57
Den Haag
19%
fair odds 5.36
Market vs model
Market median
1.21 / 6.00 / 10.00
Model edge
+86.4%
Recommended stake
2.40% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.71 - 0.94
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Head to head · last 2
2
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
7
Goals for
4
Goals against
Form & scorers
Twente · last 4
2W · 1D · 1L
Den Haag · last 5
0W · 1D · 4L
Eredivisie top scorers
- 1Søren TengstedtGo Ahead4
- 2Ro-Zangelo DaalAZ4
- 3Milan ZonneveldSparta4
- 4Rafik el ArguiouiCambuur4
- 5Gjivai ZechiëlFeyenoord4
- 6David GardenExcelsior3
- 7Luciano ValenteFeyenoord3
- 8Brynjolfur Darri WillumssonGroningen3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 113.4%
- #22 - 010.3%
- #31 - 010.0%
- #42 - 19.7%
- #50 - 09.1%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →