Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Sunday, April 27, 2025 · 12:00 AM

Botafogo FRvsFluminense FC

Score timeline

Botafogo

2 - 0

Fluminense

Full time · HT 1–0

First half

1 - 0

Botafogo v Fluminense

Second half

1 - 0

Botafogo v Fluminense

Goals by half

Botafogo

Fluminense

Each tick is a goal.

Match highlights

Full time 2–0

Watch on YouTube

Outcome probabilities

42%

30%

28%

Botafogo winDrawFluminense win

Botafogo

42%

fair odds 2.38

Draw

30%

fair odds 3.35

Fluminense

28%

fair odds 3.55

Market vs model

Market median

2.54 / 3.10 / 2.72

Model edge

+6.6%

Recommended stake

1.07% of bankroll

Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.50 - 1.20

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

Under 2.5 goals

49%

Head to head · last 6

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals for

Goals against

Form & scorers

Botafogo · last 5

WDWLD

2W · 2D · 1L

Fluminense · last 5

DDDDW

1W · 4D · 0L

Top scorers playing today

John KennedyFluminense9goals
Danilo dos Santos de OliveiraBotafogo7goals
Arthur CabralBotafogo7goals

Campeonato Brasileiro Série A top scorers

1Kevin ViverosParanaense12
2PedroFlamengo12
3Carlos ViníciusGrêmio10
4Breno LopesCoritiba8
5Jonathan CalleriSão Paulo7
6Luciano JubaBahia7
7Gabriel BarbosaSantos7
8José Manuel LópezPalmeiras6

Most likely scorelines

#11 - 1
14.3%
#22 - 1
9.1%
#30 - 0
8.9%
#41 - 0
7.9%
#52 - 0
7.6%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →