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Eredivisie · Sunday, October 27, 2024 · 03:45 PM

AFC AjaxvsWillem II Tilburg

Score timeline

Ajax

1 - 0

Willem II

Full time · HT 10

First half

1 - 0

Ajax v Willem II

Second half

0 - 0

Ajax v Willem II

Goals by half

Ajax
Willem II

Each tick is a goal.

Match highlights

Watch Ajax vs Willem II highlightsFull time 1–0 · opens YouTube in a new tab

Highlights are hosted on YouTube by the competition's rights holders; availability varies.

Outcome probabilities

56%
26%
18%
Ajax winDrawWillem II win

Ajax

56%

fair odds 1.78

Draw

26%

fair odds 3.84

Willem II

18%

fair odds 5.61

Market vs model

Market median

1.14 / 7.50 / 14.00

Model edge

+149.4%

Recommended stake

2.50% of bankroll

Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.88 - 1.00

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

Under 2.5 goals

45%

Head to head · last 6

5

Wins

1

Draws

0

Losses

13

Goals for

3

Goals against

Form & scorers

Eredivisie top scorers

  • 1Søren TengstedtGo Ahead4
  • 2Ro-Zangelo DaalAZ4
  • 3Milan ZonneveldSparta4
  • 4Rafik el ArguiouiCambuur4
  • 5Gjivai ZechiëlFeyenoord4
  • 6David GardenExcelsior3
  • 7Luciano ValenteFeyenoord3
  • 8Brynjolfur Darri WillumssonGroningen3

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    12.4%
  • #22 - 0
    9.9%
  • #32 - 1
    9.9%
  • #41 - 0
    8.6%
  • #50 - 0
    7.5%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →