Premier League · Saturday, May 11, 2024 · 02:00 PM
AFC BournemouthvsBrentford FC
Score timeline
Bournemouth
1 - 2
Brentford
Full time · HT 0–0
First half
0 - 0
Bournemouth v Brentford
Second half
1 - 2
Bournemouth v Brentford
Goals by half
Each tick is a goal.
Match highlights
Watch Bournemouth vs Brentford highlightsFull time 1–2 · opens YouTube in a new tabHighlights are hosted on YouTube by the competition's rights holders; availability varies.
Outcome probabilities
Bournemouth
51%
fair odds 1.97
Draw
29%
fair odds 3.50
Brentford
21%
fair odds 4.83
Market vs model
Market median
2.50 / 3.50 / 2.63
Model edge
+26.8%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.66 - 1.00
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Head to head · last 5
0
Wins
1
Draws
4
Losses
5
Goals for
11
Goals against
Form & scorers
Bournemouth · last 3
0W · 2D · 1L
Brentford · last 3
1W · 2D · 0L
Top scorers playing today
- Vitaly JaneltBrentford2goals
- Marcus TavernierBournemouth2goals
Premier League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City3
- 2Alexander IsakLiverpool3
- 3Bruno FernandesMan United3
- 4Kai HavertzArsenal2
- 5Bukayo SakaArsenal2
- 6Martin ØdegaardArsenal2
- 7Jack HinshelwoodBrighton Hove2
- 8Anthony ElangaNewcastle2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 113.7%
- #22 - 19.6%
- #32 - 09.6%
- #41 - 09.5%
- #50 - 09.1%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →