Mintscore

Ligue 1 · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 06:45 PM

FC LorientvsToulouse FC

Outcome probabilities

35%
30%
35%
Lorient winDrawToulouse win

Lorient

35%

fair odds 2.85

Draw

30%

fair odds 3.34

Toulouse

35%

fair odds 2.85

Market vs model

Market median

2.60 / 3.25 / 2.70

Model edge

-2.8%

Recommended stake

no stake

Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.38 - 1.38

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

Under 2.5 goals

48%

Head to head · last 6

0

Wins

3

Draws

3

Losses

5

Goals for

8

Goals against

Form & scorers

Ligue 1 top scorers

  • 1Amine GouiriMarseille4
  • 2Kamory DoumbiaBrest4
  • 3Lassine SinayokoParis FC4
  • 4Florian ThauvinRC Lens3
  • 5Louis MafoutaLe Mans3
  • 6Esteban LepaulStade Rennais3
  • 7Ferrán TorresPSG2
  • 8MarquinhosPSG2

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    14.3%
  • #20 - 0
    8.6%
  • #31 - 2
    8.3%
  • #42 - 1
    8.3%
  • #50 - 1
    6.6%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →