Ligue 1 · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 06:45 PM
FC LorientvsToulouse FC
Outcome probabilities
Lorient
35%
fair odds 2.85
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.34
Toulouse
35%
fair odds 2.85
Market vs model
Market median
2.60 / 3.25 / 2.70
Model edge
-2.8%
Recommended stake
no stake
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.38 - 1.38
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
48%
Head to head · last 6
0
Wins
3
Draws
3
Losses
5
Goals for
8
Goals against
Form & scorers
Lorient · last 3
1W · 1D · 1L
Toulouse · last 3
0W · 1D · 2L
Ligue 1 top scorers
- 1Amine GouiriMarseille4
- 2Kamory DoumbiaBrest4
- 3Lassine SinayokoParis FC4
- 4Florian ThauvinRC Lens3
- 5Louis MafoutaLe Mans3
- 6Esteban LepaulStade Rennais3
- 7Ferrán TorresPSG2
- 8MarquinhosPSG2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #20 - 08.6%
- #31 - 28.3%
- #42 - 18.3%
- #50 - 16.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →