FIFA World Cup · Tuesday, June 23, 2026 · 08:00 PM
EnglandvsGhana
Outcome probabilities
England
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Ghana
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
1.18 / 7.44 / 16.75
Model edge
+372.3%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Form & scorers
FIFA World Cup top scorers
- 1Lionel MessiArgentina5
- 2Kylian MbappéFrance4
- 3Erling HaalandNorway4
- 4Deniz UndavGermany3
- 5Jonathan DavidCanada3
- 6Cyle LarinCanada2
- 7Folarin BalogunUSA2
- 8Ismael SaibariMorocco2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →