FIFA World Cup · Thursday, June 25, 2026 · 08:00 PM
EcuadorvsGermany
Outcome probabilities
Ecuador
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Germany
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
3.75 / 3.92 / 1.88
Model edge
+57.4%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Deniz UndavGermany3goals
- Kai HavertzGermany2goals
FIFA World Cup top scorers
- 1Lionel MessiArgentina5
- 2Kylian MbappéFrance4
- 3Erling HaalandNorway4
- 4Jonathan DavidCanada3
- 5Cyle LarinCanada2
- 6Folarin BalogunUSA2
- 7Ismael SaibariMorocco2
- 8Vinicius JuniorBrazil2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links, Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Got a code on another bookmaker?
Convert booking codes between SportyBet, Bet9ja, 1xBet, BetKing & MSport instantly.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →