Primera Division · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Real Sociedad de FútbolvsReal Betis Balompié
Outcome probabilities
54%
27%
19%
Real Sociedad winDrawReal Betis win
Real Sociedad
54%
fair odds 1.84
Draw
27%
fair odds 3.64
Real Betis
18%
fair odds 5.54
Market vs model
Market median
2.62 / 3.60 / 2.58
Model edge
+42.7%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.75 – 0.94
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 113.2%
- #22 – 010.4%
- #31 – 09.9%
- #42 – 19.8%
- #50 – 08.8%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →