Primera Division · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 07:00 PM

FC BarcelonavsReal Madrid CF

Outcome probabilities

49%

28%

23%

Barça winDrawReal Madrid win

Barça

49%

fair odds 2.05

Draw

28%

fair odds 3.60

Real Madrid

23%

fair odds 4.26

Market vs model

Market median

1.62 / 4.78 / 4.36

Model edge

+32.7%

Recommended stake

2.17% of bankroll

Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.73 – 1.15

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

Under 2.5 goals

45%

Most likely scorelines

#11 – 1
13.2%
#22 – 1
9.6%
#32 – 0
8.4%
#41 – 0
7.7%
#50 – 0
7.6%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →