Bundesliga · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 01:30 PM
RB LeipzigvsFC St. Pauli 1910
Outcome probabilities
62%
22%
16%
RB Leipzig winDrawSt. Pauli win
RB Leipzig
62%
fair odds 1.60
Draw
22%
fair odds 4.57
St. Pauli
16%
fair odds 6.40
Market vs model
Market median
1.29 / 6.00 / 9.30
Model edge
+45.3%
Recommended stake
1.36% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.31 – 1.12
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Under 2.5 goals
33%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 19.9%
- #22 – 19.7%
- #32 – 08.6%
- #43 – 17.5%
- #53 – 06.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →