Bundesliga · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 01:30 PM
VfB StuttgartvsBayer 04 Leverkusen
Outcome probabilities
35%
24%
41%
Stuttgart winDrawLeverkusen win
Stuttgart
35%
fair odds 2.84
Draw
24%
fair odds 4.13
Leverkusen
41%
fair odds 2.46
Market vs model
Market median
2.00 / 4.10 / 3.20
Model edge
+29.9%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.82 – 1.96
Both teams to score
74%
Over 2.5 goals
73%
Under 2.5 goals
27%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 19.6%
- #21 – 28.0%
- #32 – 17.4%
- #42 – 27.3%
- #51 – 35.2%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →