Bundesliga · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 04:30 PM
VfL WolfsburgvsFC Bayern München
Outcome probabilities
18%
22%
60%
Wolfsburg winDrawBayern win
Wolfsburg
18%
fair odds 5.59
Draw
22%
fair odds 4.50
Bayern
60%
fair odds 1.67
Market vs model
Market median
4.95 / 4.95 / 1.55
Model edge
+9.9%
Recommended stake
0.63% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.24 – 2.31
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Under 2.5 goals
31%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 19.7%
- #21 – 29.5%
- #30 – 27.7%
- #41 – 37.3%
- #50 – 35.9%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →