Premier League · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 03:30 PM
West Ham United FCvsArsenal FC
Outcome probabilities
25%
27%
48%
West Ham winDrawArsenal win
West Ham
25%
fair odds 4.04
Draw
27%
fair odds 3.76
Arsenal
49%
fair odds 2.06
Market vs model
Market median
5.40 / 4.20 / 1.57
Model edge
+33.8%
Recommended stake
1.92% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.28 – 1.84
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals
40%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 112.3%
- #21 – 29.6%
- #30 – 27.5%
- #42 – 16.7%
- #50 – 06.3%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links — Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →