Premier League · Monday, May 11, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Tottenham Hotspur FCvsLeeds United FC
Outcome probabilities
58%
23%
19%
Tottenham winDrawLeeds United win
Tottenham
58%
fair odds 1.72
Draw
23%
fair odds 4.27
Leeds United
18%
fair odds 5.42
Market vs model
Market median
1.88 / 3.85 / 3.80
Model edge
+9.3%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.17 – 1.19
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals
35%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 110.6%
- #22 – 19.7%
- #32 – 08.2%
- #43 – 17.0%
- #51 – 05.9%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →