Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 04:30 PM
Manchester City FCvsBrentford FC
Outcome probabilities
81%
14%
Man City winDrawBrentford win
Man City
81%
fair odds 1.24
Draw
14%
fair odds 7.27
Brentford
5%
fair odds 18.39
Market vs model
Market median
1.37 / 5.50 / 7.25
Model edge
+10.3%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.94 – 0.74
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Most likely scorelines
- #12 – 010.9%
- #23 – 010.7%
- #32 – 18.1%
- #43 – 17.9%
- #54 – 07.9%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →