Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 11:30 AM
Liverpool FCvsChelsea FC
Outcome probabilities
65%
21%
14%
Liverpool winDrawChelsea win
Liverpool
65%
fair odds 1.54
Draw
21%
fair odds 4.72
Chelsea
14%
fair odds 7.21
Market vs model
Market median
9.10 / 1.13 / 11.50
Model edge
+490.9%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.36 – 1.05
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
34%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 19.7%
- #22 – 19.7%
- #32 – 09.2%
- #43 – 17.6%
- #53 – 07.2%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →