Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 02:00 PM

Fulham FCvsAFC Bournemouth

Outcome probabilities

54%

26%

20%

Fulham winDrawBournemouth win

Fulham

54%

fair odds 1.87

Draw

26%

fair odds 3.92

Bournemouth

21%

fair odds 4.77

Market vs model

Market median

2.70 / 3.63 / 2.45

Model edge

+44.5%

Recommended stake

2.50% of bankroll

Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.95 – 1.18

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

39%

Most likely scorelines

#11 – 1
11.9%
#22 – 1
9.8%
#32 – 0
8.3%
#41 – 0
6.7%
#53 – 1
6.4%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →