Premier League · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 01:00 PM

Burnley FCvsAston Villa FC

Outcome probabilities

41%

28%

31%

Burnley winDrawAston Villa win

Burnley

41%

fair odds 2.41

Draw

28%

fair odds 3.56

Aston Villa

30%

fair odds 3.29

Market vs model

Market median

5.25 / 4.18 / 1.61

Model edge

+117.9%

Recommended stake

2.50% of bankroll

Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.63 – 1.38

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

42%

Most likely scorelines

#11 – 1
13.1%
#22 – 1
9.0%
#31 – 2
7.6%
#40 – 0
7.0%
#52 – 0
6.6%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →