Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Brighton & Hove Albion FCvsWolverhampton Wanderers FC
Outcome probabilities
60%
23%
17%
Brighton Hove winDrawWolverhampton win
Brighton Hove
60%
fair odds 1.66
Draw
23%
fair odds 4.27
Wolverhampton
16%
fair odds 6.15
Market vs model
Market median
1.26 / 6.25 / 10.00
Model edge
+62.6%
Recommended stake
1.74% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.14 – 1.06
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals
38%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 110.9%
- #22 – 19.9%
- #32 – 09.3%
- #43 – 17.1%
- #51 – 07.0%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →