Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 02:00 PM

Sunderland AFCvsManchester United FC

Outcome probabilities

45%

28%

27%

Sunderland winDrawMan United win

Sunderland

45%

fair odds 2.24

Draw

28%

fair odds 3.61

Man United

28%

fair odds 3.62

Market vs model

Market median

3.30 / 3.47 / 2.17

Model edge

+47.6%

Recommended stake

2.50% of bankroll

Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.71 – 1.31

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

42%

Most likely scorelines

#11 – 1
12.9%
#22 – 1
9.3%
#31 – 2
7.2%
#42 – 0
7.1%
#50 – 0
6.9%

Place this bet at

SportyBet↗BetKing↗1xBet↗BetWinner↗MSport↗

Affiliate links — Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →