Serie A · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 01:00 PM
Cagliari CalciovsUdinese Calcio
Outcome probabilities
42%
30%
28%
Cagliari winDrawUdinese win
Cagliari
42%
fair odds 2.40
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.28
Udinese
28%
fair odds 3.60
Market vs model
Market median
2.55 / 2.80 / 3.15
Model edge
+6.5%
Recommended stake
1.04% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.45 – 1.15
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 114.6%
- #20 – 09.7%
- #32 – 19.0%
- #41 – 08.5%
- #52 – 07.8%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →